Tom's Life Bits

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=====  The Whole Enchilada - part one =====

There are stats that I calculate that expose more of my thinking than I want to have exposed - so I do not show them often. At year end - and being almost fully invested - I had decided to share those stats. I really hope that most of you do not go to the effort to understand them - and that most of you believe this is a bunch of voo-doo math that will never work in the real world. That is partially a correct impression - because I will show that the stats are only about 70% predictive and 30% in error.

Given that the statistical analysis is NOT the end of my investigations - and not the sole determinant of my investing decisions, I can live that with level of error. The statistical analysis is just the beginning - it highlights what MLPs I want to investigate further.

And the first step in generating predictive numbers is to generate good forward CAGR [compound annual growth rate] numbers. The first spreadsheet shows where I get those numbers - and why the numbers I use differ from the CAGR estimates the one can find at Yahoo! Those numbers are in the next message.

MLP CAGRs - Why Consensus Estimates Are Not Used

The dominant factor in assigning amended CAGRs is the distribution coverage ratio, with forecast DCF growth second and recent distribution growth third. My CAGRs are close to the analyst estimates - with only a few exceptions.

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